摘要： 提出一种基于冲突分析方法的信息系统可生存性的定量分析模型。基于冲突的三维状态空间求得各局中人在其可信移动集上的效用矩阵，再由移动欲望最强的局中人发起移动，从而得到系统全局状态转移矩阵。讨论了局势的最终结局，并将冲突的稳定性分析转化为一个Markov分析过程。数值分析结果表明，该模型具有较好的量化分析应用前景。

关键词: 生存性, 冲突, 定量分析, 局势

Abstract: This paper proposes a quantitative analysis model for information system survivability based on conflict analysis method. Each player’s efficiency matrix on its credible motion collection can be obtained based on the three dimensional state space of conflict; then the player whose desires moving are strongest initiates the moving, thus the overall state transition matrix of information system is gotten. The final result of situation, and changing the stability analysis of conflict into a Markov analysis process is discussed. Numerical results indicate that the proposed method may effectively be applied in the quantitative analysis of survivability.

Key words: survivability, conflict, , quantitative analysis, situation

中图分类号: 

• TP391