摘要： 海岸线变化对海岸带地区的可持续发展有重要的影响作用。该文以 Microsoft C#.NET为软件平台，应用ESRI公司提供的组建对象模型对象库——ArcObjects，利用GM(1,1)模型，通过设置预测原点和侧线，并与海岸线矢量数据进行叠加，得到若干GM(1,1)原始数列，由此计算出海岸线变化的预测点，实现了对海岸线变化的趋势预测，并将该预测系统应用于辽宁省国土资源规划地理信息系统中。

关键词: 地理信息系统, 组建对象模型, ArcObjects开发, GM(1,1)模型, 海岸线预测

Abstract: Coastline change has a considerable effect on sustainable development of coastal zone. Applying the ESRI’s Component Object Model(COM) object library——ArcObjects, this paper describes the method to design and implements coastline forecast system based on Microsoft C#.NET with GM(1,1). An original point and a serial of lateral lines which are superposed with the coastline vector data is set up in order to obtain forecast points. The forecast system is applied in Geographic Information System(GIS) of land resources planning in Liaoning Province.

Key words: Geographic Information System(GIS), Component Object Model(COM), ArcObjects development, GM(1,1), coastline forecast

中图分类号: 

• TP208