摘要： 针对软件项目面临失败风险的问题，提出一种新的软件风险评估模型，采用贝叶斯网络推理风险发生的概率，用模糊语言评估风险后果与损失的方法。实践证明，通过应用基于贝叶斯网络的软件风险评估模型，加强了软件企业风险管理的意识，降低了失败风险发生的概率，提高了软件开发的成功率。

关键词: 贝叶斯网络, 软件项目, 风险评估, 风险模型

Abstract: Focusing on the software project faced with failure risk problem, one kind of new software project risk assessment model is presented, it uses the Bayesian networks to infer the probability method which the risk occurres, uses the fuzziness language to appraise the risk consequence and the loss method. In particular, through using software project risk assessment model based on Bayesian networks, software enterprise risk management consciousness are reinforced, risk occurrence probability is reduced, and software development success rate is improved.

Key words: Bayesian networks, software project, risk assessment, risk model

中图分类号: 

• TP311