摘要： 分析比较不同预测模型的特点及应用条件，基于一次指数平滑模型、二次指数平滑模型和灰色系统模型GM(1,1)，提出并设计能适应网络性能数据序列的混合预测模型。实际应用证明，该模型预测效果良好，能够较好地实现一段时间内的网络性能预测任务。

关键词: 性能预测, 指数平滑模型, 灰色系统模型, 混合预测模型

Abstract: According to the different characters of the sequence for different forecasting models, the applied conditions of various forecast are analyzed, two kinds of exponential smoothing models and gray model GM(1,1) are illuminated. This paper proposes a Mixed Forecast Model(MFM) which can adapt to the network performance data. By the practical applications, it proves that the forecast effect of MFM is good, and MFM can realize the function of network forecast well in period of time.

Key words: performance forecast, exponential smoothing model, gray system model, Mixed Forecast Model(MFM)

中图分类号: 

• TP393