摘要： 提出一种软件系统需求风险评估方法。通过构造Bayesian网络分析需求风险以及风险源之间的因果关系，利用条件概率表定量描述需求风险发生概率，应用层次分析法进行风险影响的评估，得到各项需求风险的综合风险值。仿真结果表明，该方法能较准确地评估软件需求分析阶段的风险等级，在等级划分方面列出了一些主要的需求风险，从而有助于开展风险管理，增强软件的可靠性。

关键词: requirement risk evaluation, Bayesian network, software risk analysis, risk source recognition, risk list

Abstract: This paper proposes a risk evaluation method of software system. By building a Bayesian network, the method analyses the uncertainty contained in the main activities during requirements analysis phase. It determines the sources of risks related to every requirements-risk in the risk list. Then establish a structure-learning algorithm to evaluate the risk effects in order to get the general result of all risks during requirements analysis phase. Simulation result shows that the methods reflect the risk level during the software requirements analysis phase more accurately, list some of the common main requirements risks in the in risks classification, help to carry out the risk management, and enhance the reliability of the software.

Key words: requirement risk evaluation, Bayesian network, software risk analysis, risk source recognition, risk list

中图分类号: 

• TP311.5