摘要：

提出一个基于Agent动态网络的疾病传播模型，研究疾病在人群中传播扩散的动态过程。在扩展疾病传播的SIR模型基础上，利用不同的个体状态描述各阶段病情。在二维规则网络上，通过增加个体自主移动性构建动态社会网络，并考虑个体异质性和所采取的防护措施对疾病传播的影响。仿真结果表明，该模型较好地反映了动态社会网络和个体适应性行为对疾病传播的影响，并与实际情况基本保持一致。

关键词: Agent行为模型, 动态网络, 疾病传播, SIR模型, 元胞自动机

Abstract:

This paper presents an epidemic propagation model based on Agent dynamical network to study the dynamical behaviors of epidemic transmission. The model extends traditional epidemic spread SIR model, describes the post-infection process of epidemic by different individual states. In order to adapt to the social network of epidemic transmission, this paper constructs the dynamical social network based on two-dimensional regular network by adding individual autonomy of mobility, considers the effects of heterogeneity and protection measures on the dynamics of transmission. Simulation results show the model fairly reflects the effects of dynamic social network and individual adaptive behaviors on the spread of the epidemic, and it is almost consistent with the reality condition.

Key words: Agent behavior model, dynamical network, epidemic propagation, SIR model, Cellular Automata(CA)

中图分类号: 

• TP23