摘要： 基于极大似然估计,提出一种将混合爱尔朗分布(HErD)用于电梯客流到达分布拟合的方法。基于回归方法分析HErD待定参数之间的规律,发现混合比例α和尺度参数λ均与变异系数的平方cx2相关,因此,将HErD的多个待定参数约简为一个尺度参数,并给出由一阶矩和cx2确定尺度参数的方法。将其与指数分布、正态分布等方法对成都CBD高层写字楼的工作日早高峰电梯客流到达时间间隔进行概率分布拟合,结果表明,约简前后的HErD拟合精度均优于其他分布,且稳定性较高。

关键词: 电梯客流, 概率分布, 拟合能力, 参数约简, 分布拟合

Abstract: An arrival distribution fitting method of elevator passenger flow by using Hyper-Erlang Distribution(HErD) is proposed based on the maximum likelihood estimation.The relationship among the parameters estimated of HErD is analyzed based on regression.It is obtained that mixing ratio α and the scale parameter λ are both related to the squared coefficient of variation c2x.As a result,the parameters of HErD are reduced to one scale parameter determined by the first moment and c2x.Arrival time interval distributions of morning peak elevator passenger in Chengdu’s CBD is fitted by using HErD,exponential distribution,normal distribution,etc.The results show that HErD before and after reduction performs best and stable compared with other distributions.

Key words: elevator passenger flow, probability distribution, fitting ability, parameter reduction, distribution fitting

中图分类号: 

• TP301.6