计算机工程 ›› 2007, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (21): 281-282.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3428.2007.21.100

• 开发研究与设计技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于路段行程时间的公交到站预测方法

陈巳康1,詹成初2,陈良贵1   

  1. (1. 上海市城市交通管理局,上海 200003;2. 上海复旦光华信息科技股份有限公司,上海 200433)
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-11-05 发布日期:2007-11-05

Prediction Method of Bus Arrival Time Based on Link Travel Time

CHEN Si-kang1, ZHAN Cheng-chu2, CHEN Liang-gui1   

  1. (1. Shanghai Municipal Transportation Administrative Bureau, Shanghai 200003; 2. Shanghai Fudan Grand Horizon Information Technology Inc., Shanghai 200433)
  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-11-05 Published:2007-11-05

摘要: 对公交到站时间预报技术进行了研究和探索。建立公交线网道路模型,根据GPS车载终端采集的公交车辆运行动态数据,推测路段交通状况及对应的路段行程时间,预测公交到站时间,并分析各种误差。实验数据表明,在2min误差内的预测时间准确率大于80%,基本可满足公交时间预报要求。

关键词: 路段行程时间, 公交到站预报, GPS车载终端, 公交线网道路模型

Abstract: This paper studies the prediction technology of bus arrival time. After building the model of public transport network, the road traffic situation and corresponding traveling time are speculated according to dynamic data collected by GPS vehicle terminals, and then the bus arrival time is predicted. Different kinds of errors are analyzed. The accuracy of this method is more than 80% within the range of two minutes error permission, which can generally meet the requirement of prediction for bus arrival time.

Key words: link travel time, prediction of bus arrival, GPS vehicle terminals, model of public transport network road

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