摘要： 利用广东湛江地区近30年月平均气温的气象数据作为数据集，建立了一种新的基于径向基核函数的支持向量机模型预测系统。通过适当选择模型参数，其平均绝对百分比误差只有5.61%，在绝对误差温度小于等于2℃的条件下，预测的准确率达到了95%，显示出所建立的支持向量机模型预测系统的有效性。通过分析发现了湛江海岸地区气候和全球气候变暖一致的事实。

关键词: 径向基核函数, 支持向量机, 模型预测系统

Abstract: Using the weather data of average temperature of nearly thirty years recorded at Guangdong Zhanjiang seashore region as the data set, this paper sets up a new support vector machines models forecast system based on radial basis kernel function(RBF). By choosing the model parameter properly, the mean absolute percentage error is only about 5.61%, if the absolute error is less than 2℃, the rate of accuracy comes to 95%. This shows the validity of the SVMS forecast system. In addation, by analysing it finds that the climate gets warm gradually in Zhanjiang and this is consistent with the global climate.

Key words: Radial basis kernel function, Support vector machines, Model forecast system

中图分类号: 

• TP391