摘要：

提出基于灰色系统理论中灰色关联分析与线性回归的建模方法，建立降雨量测点优选模型，从众多分散的雨量测点中筛选出关键的观测点，既能观测有代表区域的雨量及整个地区雨量的现状，又能节省成本。在实例分析中，将前9年的监测数据作为训练数据，建立优选模型，选择出12个测点中的6个作为关键测点，将最后一年的数据作为测试数据，结果表明，该模型能够优选出降雨量关键测点，并能准确反映总的降雨量，避免降雨量测点之间相互耦合的影响，准确性和鲁棒性均得到较大提高。

关键词: 灰色关联度, 线性回归, 降雨量测点优选, 灰色理论, 综合关联度

Abstract:

A new combination method called gray correlation analysis and multiple linear regression method is proposed to establish the optimized selection model of measuring points for rainfall. A practical case is given to prove the reasonability and feasibility of this optimized selection model, and six critical points are selected from twelve points. Result shows that this model is effective, reliable and feasible, by which critical points can be picked out optimally, and the interaction between measuring points can be removed, accordingly accuracy and robustness improve greatly.

Key words: grey correlation, linear regression, optimized selection of measuring points for rainfall, grey theory, synthetic correlation

中图分类号: 

• TP181