摘要： 针对复杂系统可靠性评估困难问题，提出一种基于Bayes-GO方法的复杂系统可靠性评估模型。采用Bayes方法融合多源先验信息，建立单元级可靠性模型，再用GO方法综合单元级可靠性参数，获得系统可靠性模型。通过某复杂电子设备可靠性评估实例，验证模型的有效性。结果表明，该方法既有Bayes方法充分利用先验信息的优点，又兼具GO方法直观、简便的特点，在相关领域应用中具有较高的参考价值。

关键词: Bayes方法, GO方法, 可靠性评估, 复杂系统, 先验信息

Abstract: Aiming at the difficulty in reliability assessment of complex system, a model based on Bayes-GO method is proposed. Bayes method is adopted for multi-source information fusion to build the component reliability model, and GO method is utilized to integrate the component reliability parameters and form the reliability model of the system. An instance of reliability assessment for complex electronic equipment is given to show the effectiveness of the model. Result shows that, this method takes advantage of Bayes method and GO method, and it provides useful reference for relative applications.

Key words: Bayes method, GO method, reliability assessment, complex system, prior information

中图分类号: 

• TP331