摘要： 将最小割集和最小径集的概念引入了因果图理论,并用于重大安全事故的定性和定量分析中。以煤矿行业为应用背景,通过最小割集、最小径集和事件对顶事件的概率影响,分析了各事件对瓦斯爆炸的影响,并在此基础上提供了事故预防方案。研究表明:因果图方法能有效地用于安全分析,是预测重大安全事故的定性和定量方法,并能为事故原因调查、事故预防措施提供有效的方案。采用因果图方法对煤矿瓦斯爆炸进行安全分析的结果与实际一致,在此基础上提出的预防措施比较有效。

关键词: 因果图方法, 安全事故分析, 瓦斯爆炸, 最小割集, 最小径集

Abstract: Minimal cut set and minimal path set are introduced to develop causality diagram methodology. And the application of causality diagram in major safety accident analysis is discussed in qualitative and quantitative ways. As a typical case, the application fields focus on the coal mining. The influence of each event on the gas explosion through minimal cut set, minimal path set and probabilistic effect of each event to the top event is analyzed in detail. Therefore some precautionary measures to avoid explosion accidents can be recommended. The research indicates that causality diagram is so effective in fault analysis, and it is a qualitative and quantitative method to predict safety accidents. With the approach presented above some effective measures can be suggested to survey, prevent and control accidents. What’ more, the results of the analysis accord with the actual requirements, and thus the precautionary measures are effective.

中图分类号: 

• X928