摘要： 辅助决策问题在通常情况下是若干与单一决策事件相关的多准则综合评判问题。针对多准则复杂综合智能辅助决策问题,提出基于影响分析的辅助决策模型,根据贝叶斯网络模型推理在决策事件条件下决策准则向量中各分量的概率置信度状态,依据决策目标定义多准则决策评判函数,使用评判函数找出决策事件的最优解。决策模型继承了贝叶斯网络模型的概率量化推理计算能力,同时对多准则因子进行了综合推理和分析。实例结果表明,该模型对于复杂逻辑关系下的多准则智能决策问题具有较优的决策效果。
关键词:
智能辅助决策,
贝叶斯网络,
概率推理,
多准则决策,
评价函数
Abstract: Usually,problem of intelligence assistant decision is an integrated evaluation problem from multiple criteria related to some special decision event.Aiming at the intelligence decision support problem of multiple criteria,a model is proposed of establishing Bayessian Network(BN) with cause-and-effect relationships.It inferences the state probability of every components of decision criterion vector according to the probability of decision event based on BN model,and defines the multiple criteria decision evaluation function from decision objective and finds the best option of the decision event with the function.The model inherits the ability of probability quantizing reasoning of BN model and can analyze multiple criteria synthetically.Experimental results show that the model can find the optimal alternative of intelligence decision problem from multiple criteria with complicated relationship.
Key words:
intelligence assistant decision,
Bayesian Network(BN),
probability inference,
multiple criteria decision,
evaluation function
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