摘要： 在突发事件应急管理评估过程中，参评专家经验及语言描述差异会导致评估信息存在不确定性和模糊性，直接影响评估结果。针对该问题，基于D数偏好关系改进层次分析法（D-AHP）和逼近理想解排序法（TOPSIS），提出一种突发事件应急管理能力评估方法。根据应急管理实际情况建立评估指标体系，通过构建D-AHP层次结构模型求解各评估指标的影响权重，同时结合专家的评估结果，利用TOPSIS方法对评估对象的突发事件应急管理能力水平进行排序。对某市下辖4个区县的评估结果表明，该方法能有效识别应急管理过程中的关键环节，直观展示各个评估对象的实际水平并有助于给出完善应急管控建设的针对性建议。

关键词: 突发事件应急管理, 多准则决策, D数理论, 逼近理想解排序法, 层次分析法, 模糊偏好关系

Abstract: In the emergency management assessment process,the differences in the experience and language description of the experts can cause uncertainty and ambiguity in the assessment information,directly affecting the assessment results.Aiming at this problem,an assessment method for emergency management capability is proposed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process extended by D numbers preference relation (D-AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS).According to the actual situation of emergency management,an assessment index system is established.By constructing the D-AHP hierarchical structure model,the impact weights of each assessment index is solved.Combined with the assessment results of the experts,the TOPSIS method is used to rank the emergency management capability level of the assessment objects.The assessment results of four districts and counties of a certain city show that the method can effectively identify the key links in the emergency management process,visually display the actual level of each assessment object and help to give specific suggestions for improving the emergency management and control construction.

Key words: emergency management, Multi-Criterion Decision Making(MCDM), D number theory, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS), Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP), fuzzy preference relation

中图分类号: 

• TP391.9