摘要： Internet 网络流量的分析、模型仿真以及流量的预测，在网络管理和设计中起着很重要的作用。该文在此方面做了一些工作和尝试，主要有两方面的贡献：（1）在分析和比较了不同模型性能的基础上，提出了CERNET IP backbone 的流量模型；（2）将自适应滤波的新思想引入网络流量的模型仿真和预测，提出了自适应网络流量线性预测的新算法。

关键词: 网络流量；线性预测；流量模型

Abstract: Internet traffic analysis, models simulation and prediction play a very important part in the network management and design. The paper makes some research on this work, it shows two part contributions: First, on the basis of analyzing the performance of different models, the CERNET IP backbone network traffic model is presented; Second, it brings the new thought in network traffic modeling and prediction, and proposes a new algorithm for adaptive network traffic linear prediction.

Key words: Network traffic; Linear prediction; Traffic model