摘要： 提出了Web 业务管理定量模型构造系统的体系结构，并采用逐步线性回归算法联机发现定量模型。该系统的优点是不需预先掌握被管元素的先验知识，就能联机发现Web 业务的定量模型，并且随着提供者配置的变化和需求的变更，不断动态地更新定量模型。通过应用于实际Web 业务的管理，反映出响应时间72%以上的变化度，证明了定量模型构造系统和模型构造算法的有效性。

关键词: Web 业务管理；定量模型；线性回归；响应时间

Abstract: An architecture for online discovery quantitative model system of Web service management with the stepwise linear regression algorithm is proposed. The system is capable of constructing the quantitative models online without prior knowledge of the managed elements. The model can be updated continuously in response to the changes made in provider configurations and the evolution of business demands. Through the application of an actual Web service management, the system model chooses three most influential metrics that weight 72% of the variability of response time, illustrating the effectiveness of quantitative model constructing system and model constructing algorithms.

Key words: Web service management; Quantitative model; Linear regression; Response time