摘要： 为探究网络舆情的演化规律及导控作用,采用定量分析方法,提出一种基于元胞自动机的舆情导控机制。定义内在动力系数、倔强度系数等舆情主体属性,提出舆情导控力系数。在元胞自动机模型中,把主体属性以及导控强度赋值给每一个元胞,仿真实现并分析了外界导控作用、网民属性对网络舆情发展的强度和方向的影响。实验结果表明,在网络舆情传播形成和发展时期对舆情进行正确导控,可以避免不良舆论的发生,舆情演化总体呈现扩散状态。

关键词: 元胞自动机, 网络舆情, 主体属性, 舆情导控, Matlab建模

Abstract: In order to explore the evolution law and guidance effect of Internet public opinion,a public opinion guidance mechanism based on Cellular Automaton(CA) model is proposed using the quantitative analysis method.This paper defines some subject attributes which are the internal motivation coefficient,the stubborn strength coefficient,etc.and puts forward a guidance coefficient of public opinion.The subject attributes and the guidance strength coefficient are assigned to each unit cell in CA model.The effect of external guidance and the characteristics of netizen on the intensity and direction of the public opinion development are simulated and analysed.Experimental results show that,at the formation and expansion stages of network public opinion dissemination,with a correct guidance,the outbreak of bad public opinion can be avoided,and the evolution of public opinion generally presents a diffusion state.

Key words: Cellular Automaton(CA), Internet public opinion, subject attribute, public opinion guidance, Matlab modeling

中图分类号: 

• TP393.08