摘要： 首先分析多种软件可靠性预测模型，指出其不足；充分考虑了模块内复杂度和模块间关系以及改错能力对可靠度的影响后, 提出一种正交体系结构下基于Markoff 链的软件可靠性定量分析方法。该方法考虑了复杂度、开发能力、修改能力和使用频率对软件可靠性的影响，使用时对数据的要求不严格，易满足，可用于软件开发中后期。

关键词: 软件可靠性；软件可靠性预测模型；正交体系结构；模块可靠度矩阵

Abstract: This paper firstly analyzes multiple models of software reliability prediction and indicates their shortcomings. To solve them, it proposes a new Markoff-based quantitive analysis method of software reliability prediction. This method considers five influencing factors taking on software reliability: module complexity, module relationship, module usage frequency, development ability and correcting ability. The method has no strict data conditions for usage, and can be applied to medium/late stage of software development.

Key words: Software reliability; Prediction model of software reliability; Orthogonal architecture; Module reliability matrix