摘要： 当疾病在人群中爆发时，人们对病毒传播的风险意识和规避行为随着人群中感染密度等因素的变化而作自适应的调整。针对人群中不断变化的风险意识和规避行为，提出在SIS网络传播模型中，用时变重连概率函数描述该变化过程，研究自适应网络的动态传播过程。结果证明，网络中时变重连函数的稳定值大，则病毒传播规模小。时变重连概率函数增长速度快，则病毒传播速度慢。表明人们的风险意识高且规避措施全面时，病毒最终的传染规模也小，同时，能及早地认识病毒的危害并采取规避措施，有利于对病毒传播的抑制。

关键词: 自适应网络, 病毒传播, 传播模型, 重连函数, 风险意识, 平均场理论

Abstract: When a disease breaks out in the population, risk awareness and avoidance behavior on virus propagation make the adaptive adjustment as the infection density change in real networks. Considering the changing process of the risk awareness and avoidance behavior on virus propagation, the time-varying rewiring probability is used in the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible(SIS) network propagation model. The dynamic propagation is focused on in adaptive networks. The results indicate that the faster time-varying rewiring probability increases, the slower virus spreads, and a bigger time-varying rewiring probability stable value results in a smaller propagation size. These findings suggest that in real world, the earlier rewiring strategy is applied, the more effectively it works on the inhibition of virus. The final infection scale decreases as the awareness of virus gets deeper, and avoidance behavior becomes more comprehensive.

Key words: adaptive network, virus propagation, propagation model, rewiring function, risk awareness, mean field theory

中图分类号: 

• TP393.08