摘要： 项目活动的复杂性和动态性决定了项目的不确定性。概率及概率分布的观点比较适合于处理存在相关历史数据的项目的不确定性。而对很少有或根本没有可供参考的历史数据的项目,使用模糊方法处理不确定性是恰当的。文章使用模糊数来描述项目及活动的不确定性,并举出了一个具体算例。

关键词: 不确定性, 模糊数, 计划评审法

Abstract: The complexity and dynamic characteristic result in the uncertainty of the process of the projects.The method of probability and probability distribution is suitable to deal with the uncertainty of the projects with related data. As for the projects with less related data or no related data, it is appropriate to use the method of fuzzy to handle their uncertainty.In this paper, fuzzy number is used to describe the uncertainty of project and its activities. Finally, a real example is given.

中图分类号: 

• F224