Abstract: In order to realize the fusion of information of multiple sources, the model of Bayes reliability analysis based on the multistage experiments is established, which classifies the test data according to the test stages, and making the previous stage of the test data as a priori information for the later stage. Followed by the recursive, the multi-stage fusion can be achieved based on the Bayesian method. Simulation results show that the model is simple, and can effectively fuse the multiple sources information, which realizes Bayesian reliability evaluation based on the small sample.

Key words: Bayes theory, multi-source information, prior information, information fusion, multistage experiment, small sample

摘要： 为实现多源先验信息的合理利用，基于多阶段实验数据融合数据方法，建立Bayes可靠性评定分析模型。提出多阶段实验数据融合方法，将各种实验数据进行阶段分类，将第1阶段的实验数据作为最初的先验信息，当获取第2阶段的数据后，按Bayes方法进行信息融合，以得到后验信息，并将其作为下一阶段的先验信息，依次递推，进行多阶段的信息融合。仿真结果表明，该模型简单易行，可有效融合多源先验信息，实现小子样条件下的Bayes可靠性评定。

关键词: Bayes理论, 多源信息, 先验信息, 信息融合, 多阶段实验, 小子样

CLC Number: 

• TB114.3