Hao Yaohui, Cai Jintian, Cui Xinyue, Lu Xianling
Accepted: 2026-02-04
Aiming at the problems that, in the prediction and analysis of public-opinion information spreading based on mean-field epidemic models, it is difficult to iteratively correct parameters within the model itself, which can lead to prediction bias, and that the LSTB model shows poor long-term prediction accuracy for public-opinion information propagation, the SEI⊃3;R-BiLSTM model integrating communication dynamics and deep learning technology was proposed. Firstly, the SEIR model was improved by classifying user states during the dissemination of online public opinion information into six categories: S (Information Unaware), E (Information Hesitant), I₁ (Positive Communicator), I₂ (Negative Communicator), I₃ (Neutral Communicator), and R (Information Immune), with clear definitions of the transition relationships between these states. Secondly, to enhance the model’s accuracy, the attention mechanism and residual connection were introduced by combining the BiLSTM neural network model, enabling the prediction of changes in the number of public opinion information communicators. Finally, 659,000 posts were collected from Sina Weibo across three high-profile public opinion events, including "the Jiang Ping Mathematics Competition", "Qin Lang Losing Homework", and "Fat Cat Jumping into the River", for experimental validation and analysis. The results showed that the time-series curves of the number of three types of communicators (I₁, I₂, and I₃) predicted by the SEI⊃3;R-BiLSTM model were generally consistent with the actual propagation trends, with high fitting accuracy. Furthermore, the performance of SEI⊃3;R-BiLSTM model was better than the four models including SEI⊃3;R-LSTM and SEI⊃3;R-ARIMA, based on four evaluation metrics including RMSE (0.162), MAPE (16.6%), Jaccard (0.74), and F1 score (0.72). In addition, the ablation experiment further confirmed the model’s rationality and effectiveness. These findings provide a model reference for predicting the development of online public opinion.