Abstract: Aiming at the deficiencies of the traditional features of navigation path about ships collision in the sea and the algorithm limitations for forecasting collision point, a new calculation method based on least square method of ships collision point is proposed. According to the former Global Position System(GPS) navigation data and the Mercator projection transformation, navigation track function is gained in Cartesian coordinates. The point of the intersection navigation track of two ships is identified as the possible collision point, when the ships speed and dangerous distance threshold are taken into account. The results of the numerical simulation analysis and practical application show that the method runs correctly, it is practical and can successfully avoid the limitations of the traditional method.

Key words: ship’s collision, least squares method, navigation path function fitting, Mercator projection transformation, Global Position System (GPS)

摘要： 针对海上船舶碰撞时的航行路径特征，提出一种基于最小二乘法的船舶碰撞点计算方法，根据船舶碰撞前的历史全球定位系统航行数据，利用墨卡托投影变换，在墨卡托直角坐标系中拟合出船舶航行路径函数，结合船舶航速、危险距离阈值，判断两船的航行拟合函数的交点是否为可能碰撞点。仿真实验分析比较和实际应用结果表明，该方法的计算误差小于传统方法。

关键词: 船舶碰撞, 最小二乘法, 航行路径函数拟合, 墨卡托投影变换, 全球定位系统

CLC Number: 

• TP391