摘要： 分析了现有航空运量预测方法存在的问题,建立了航空旅客运输量预测的支持向量回归模型,以中国南方航空公司1978～2002年的旅客运输量和相关指标的历史统计数据作为学习样本,分别选用不同的核函数,通过拟合训练进行预测,验证了支持向量机用于航空旅客运输量预测的有效性,并对模型中的有关参数进行了探讨分析。

关键词: 支持向量机, 回归, 航空运输预测

Abstract: This paper analyzes some existing problems of the present passenger volume forecast methods,Then it establishes the support vector machine model for passenger volume forecasting. Using the historical statistical data of passenger volumes from 1978 to 2002 as the learning specimens and choosing different kinds of kernel functions to do fit training and extrapolation forecast analysis,the paper demonstrates the effectiveness of using the support vector machine in airline passenger volume forecast.

中图分类号: 

• V354