摘要： 在现有文献研究的基础上，对修正指数曲线预测法作了进一步研究，给出了修正指数曲线参数估计的一种新方法。该方法将最优化方法与回归方法结合在一起，利用最优化理论中的区间搜索和一维搜索得到一系列 值，利用回归方法可求得与其相对应的一系列a和b的值，当 取最优 时，a和b 便得到最优值 和 。经示例计算表明，这种改进的预测方法具有较高的精度。

关键词: 电力系统, 负荷预测, 修正指数曲线

Abstract: This paper makes further research on forecasting method of improved exponential curve on the basis of the present document, and presents one new method for estimating the parameters of improved exponential curve. This method combines best optimal method and regression method. By using area search and one dimension search of the optimal theory, a series of can be got; and by using regression method, a series of “ ” and “ ” can be got. When equals the best optimal , and become the best optimal and . The sampling calculation shows that the improved forecasting method is highly precise.

Key words: Power system, Load forecast, Improved exponential curve