Abstract:

In the Internet era of information explosion, the speed and scope of rumor dissemination are becoming increasingly important. The popularity of social media and the Internet has made it possible for rumors to spread rapidly over a short period, causing negative impacts on individuals, organizations, and society. Therefore, studying the spread of rumors has become increasingly important. Many studies on the spread of rumors on social networks have been conducted; however, few have considered the effects of prohibition mechanisms on rumor spreading and debunking models. Prohibition plays a practical role in maintaining order and security in social networks. Considering this, a rumor spreading and debunking model that considers the prohibition mechanism is proposed based on the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) rumor spreading model, and its mathematical equation is established from the perspective of competitive innovation diffusion. In addition, by conducting experimental simulations on the model, the effects of factors such as prohibition duration, memory period, and forgetting rate on rumor propagation are studied. The experimental results indicate that suppressive strategies effectively control the spread of rumors in most cases. However, increasing the duration of the prohibition may not be the optimal choice for policy implementation. Conversely, it is also important to control the spread of rumors by reducing the rate of forgetting, prolonging the duration of memory, and improving credibility.

Key words: social network, sumor spreading, prohibition mechanism, SIR model, innovation diffusion

摘要：

在信息爆炸的互联网时代, 谣言传播的速度越来越快, 传播的范围越来越广。社交媒体和互联网的普及使得谣言可以在短时间内迅速传播, 给个人、组织和社会带来负面影响, 因此, 对谣言传播进行研究具有重要意义。目前已有大量文献研究社交网络中的谣言传播问题, 但较少考虑禁言机制对谣言传播与辟谣模型的作用, 而禁言对维护社交网络的秩序与安全具有现实意义。为此, 在经典SIR谣言传播模型的基础上, 提出一种考虑禁言机制的谣言传播与辟谣模型, 从竞争性创新扩散角度建立其数学方程。此外, 通过对该模型进行实验仿真, 研究禁言周期、记忆时长、遗忘率等因素对谣言传播的影响。实验结果表明, 抑制策略在多数情况下能够对谣言传播起到有效的控制效果, 然而, 增大禁言周期可能并非最佳方案, 较低的遗忘率、较长的记忆时间和提高公信力对谣言传播控制也十分重要。

关键词: 社交网络, 谣言传播, 禁言机制, SIR模型, 创新扩散